Web development is a broad term though because API development that manifests as JSON data across HTTP requests could also be considered web development.
When web design was a top role for designers, about 12-15 years ago, it was because design demands were rooted in print design. This was before mobile phones were a viable browsing tool, so you could bank on having consistent screen sizes. This was also at the time when broadband for the home was common enough that the average person could view a complex website that was so abundant with a skeuomorphic design that the bandwidth requirements were high, but the quality was high as well. As a result of complex design, web development was also a dominant role, because it was a lot of work to develop alongside that complexity of the design.
But as mobile device usage has grown, and the separation of concerns from websites being king, to instead a combination of websites, apps, and other services, the website’s need for being gloriously designed decreased. Given that we continue to have an increase in device variety, this trend is not going to reverse itself. A simple, clean design is best suited to auto-adapt to the variety of screen sizes and types that will be available for decades: visually, this is all the way from a wristwatch to a billboard.
Based on that, the majority of website development has already shifted to more data-centric work, above design-centric. If I’m viewing website content on my computer, the design might matter to me. But when I switch to my phone, design (at least, heavy graphical design) is only going to get in my way. The design components that will matter on my phone are color, typography, readability, etc. There will still be a need for designers, but far less than what we needed a decade ago, and certainly less than we need now. Designers will need to branch into more cross-device creative direction than simply “website design.”
And developers are already heading that way, by avoiding design and focusing on API development, which is critical for driving website content while also driving the two other most important technologies needed right now:
- Apps, which are currently manifesting primarily as mobile apps, but which also include voice-activated apps, and VR apps (through independent devices like what Google tried with Glass), and
- Integration, which is the data-sharing aspect of API development that allows the data from one app to be integrated with the service of another app to provide suite-like features across disparate systems.
When a design is needed, most of the existing frameworks can already handle 95% of the design needs a company has. What we’ll be lacking though, unless the trend changes, is qualified business experts who can properly capture web application needs from business owners to develop solutions that fit company requirements. The demand will be on making custom applications at a fraction of the cost of what it used to be. The more APIs there are out there to perform the functions we need, with integration at their core, the more a website is just going to be a clean merger of technologies from a variety of sources, and design is going to remain minimal, because that same content needs to adapt to varying phone sizes, a watch, a lens over my face, an audio interface reading back to me, VR projections from a headset, and so forth.
So web design and development as we know it today, is going to be mostly gone within a decade. API development, app development (in many forms) and systems integration will be the primary focus.